Jennifer ·
In order to be successful in a Football World Cup prediction game for 2022, it is especially important to deal a little with statistics. Most believe that a narrow victory such as 2-1 or 1-0 is the most common football result. But is that even true? Or is this just a popular but false assumption?
In the following article, we look at the most common results with which a football match ends. We would first take a look at the World Cup. Then, we will take a closer look at the results of the European Championship, Bundesliga and Champions League.
Do you want to gain an advantage when betting? Then, read on and take a look at our football statistics on the respective tournaments and leagues.
Most common football result at a World Cup
The Football World Cup has been held every four years since 1930. The only exception was the Second World War when the tournament had to be paused in 1942 and 1946. This means that we can look back on a total of 21 tournaments and take a closer look at the results.
Across all World Championships, 1-0 is the most common result and 128 games ended with it. On ranks 2 and 3, follow the 2:1 and the 3:1, which appeared 101 and 80 times, respectively. These are the three most common results at a World Cup.
Of course, an important factor here is the knockout phase, in which a game cannot end in a draw. Therefore, this result is omitted after the group stage and is therefore underrepresented.
Average goals per match at a Football World Cup
Over the past 30 years, average goals per game have ranged from 2.2 to 3 goals. Going back to the past, you will also find much higher values. But with the increasing professionalization of football, these results are no longer really relevant because the exits are much closer together today than at the beginning of football.
The most common results at an EM
The second-largest tournament is the European Championship. It usually also takes place every four years, but only in European countries. The European Championship has been held since 1960, and we have access to the data of 16 tournaments. But what happened as the most common football result at a European Championship?
Also, at the European Championships, 1:0 is by far the most common result, just like at the World Cup. A total of 65 games ended with this result. A little behind is the narrow 2-1 victory with 58 games and the 2-0, which arrived 48 times. The first draw is only in 4th place when 42 times the game ended 1-1. That's why we generally advise you to bet on a narrow victory with a goal difference.
Of course, you have to keep in mind that after the group stage, the game can no longer end in a draw (as at the World Cup). In the past, there were also rules, such as the Golden Goal, with which Marco Bode won the European Championship for Germany in 1996. Today, however, there is only extra time and the penalty shoot-out. But in both cases, there is no longer a draw.
Most frequent football result in the Bundesliga
Since we can access a much larger pool of data in the Bundesliga, it is better to only look at the last ten years because these results have the most relevance if you want to give a tip today.
In 9 of the last ten seasons, 1-1 was the most common result. On average, around 35 games ended with this result per season. The only exception was in 2014/15 when the narrow 1-0 victory occurred a total of 32 times. If it does not come to a 1:1, then a 2:1 is the next best option, followed by 1:0. Especially home games often go out 2-0 when the favourite plays at home.
Therefore, it is not surprising that, on average, almost three goals are scored per game. If you take a closer look at the last season, 2020/2021, you will see that most of the goals are scored in the second half (56.25%). Many fell again in the last 15 minutes (21.8%), which is why the result changes again after the 75th minute in about 60% of all games.
The most frequent results in the Champions League
The Champions League has been around for almost 20 years, having replaced the 'European Cup of National Champions in 1992. Of course, the Champions League does not play as often as the Bundesliga, but the last 20 years are enough for us as a database.
Looking back on all 20 years, the 1:1 was also the most common football result. A total of 357 matches ended with this result. This is followed by narrow victories such as the 1-0, the 2-1 and the 2-0, which occurred 338, 294 and 280 times, respectively. Then comes the goalless 0-0 with 256 games. Thus, the results are relatively identical to those from the Bundesliga, although there is the famous away goal rule in the Champions League.
As in the Bundesliga, around three goals per game have been scored in the Champions League over the past ten years. If you look back, the teams were a bit more defensive. In the 2000s, there were only 2.5 goals per game on average. Of course, as spectators, we like it better today when significantly more goals are scored per game. Five of the six most goal-scoring seasons fall into the last six years alone.
The most common football result is a good start
Finally, the results can be classified into two categories. National tournaments such as the World Cup or the European Championship have as the most common football result a narrow victory with 1:0 or 2:1. This is probably due to the few group games that take place. Once these are over, the otherwise popular results, such as a 1:1 can no longer occur. This means that in the group stage, 1:1 is a good tip, but in the knockout phase, this is no longer possible.
The situation is somewhat different in the Bundesliga and the Champions League. Here the 1:1 occurs most often, followed by the narrow 2:1 or 1:0 victories. That's because more games can generally go out 1-1. Because overall, it is simply the result that occurs most often.
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